On Nov. 22, President-Elect Donald Trump named Scott Turner as his choice to lead HUD. The announcement sets Turner up to take the reins of an agency charged with enforcing federal fair housing laws and overseeing housing for the poorest Americans. HUD shelters more than 4.3 million low-income families through public housing, rental subsidy, and voucher programs.

Scott Turner’s post-NFL football player’s career includes years as an elected official and civil servant. He represented the 33rd District in the Texas House of Representatives and served two terms from 2012 to 2017. In this office, at the Texas House of Representatives, Turner served on the government transparency and operation committee, the government efficiency and reform committee, the human services committee, the select committee on federalism and fiscal responsibility, and the international trade and intergovernmental affairs committee.

In addition, he previously led the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council during President-elect Trump’s first administration. In this capacity, he worked closely with former HUD Secretary Ben Carson on reinvestment in distressed communities through the Opportunity Zone program.

Turner currently serves as Chair for Education Opportunity at the America First Policy Institute, a think tank aligned with the incoming president.

Opportunity Zone Leadership

According to HUD, Opportunity Zones are economically distressed communities, defined by individual census tract, nominated by governors and certified by the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Opportunity Zones provide tax incentives for investments in new businesses and commercial projects in low-income and undercapitalized communities.

The Opportunity Zone program was established under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and promoted investments in distressed communities by allowing taxpayers specialized tax treatment. This included deferred capital gains, for investments in Qualified Opportunity Funds (QOF), which, in turn, must invest at least 90 percent of their assets in businesses located in qualified Opportunity Zones. The equity from Opportunity Zones can be used as a source of capital for affordable housing. Scott Turner’s familiarity with the program and Former Secretary Carson’s mentorship may prompt an updated version of Opportunity Zones under Turner’s helm.

HUD’s Prospects Under a Second Trump Presidency

If confirmed, Scott Turner will enter the role of HUD Secretary at a time when housing affordability is a growing concern. Trump’s campaign talked about addressing high housing costs, though much of his rhetoric was based on the premise of a clampdown on illegal immigration and inflation rather than affordable housing policies. One theme that has been evident throughout Trump’s first presidency and campaign is budget austerity, which could spell deep cuts for HUD funding.

In his first presidency, cuts to HUD’s budget met resistance in Congress, which, for example, has kept core programs like Section 8 housing vouchers and Public Housing intact. But a second term is expected to bring even more fiscal conservatism. Any budget cuts will grow wait lists and further squeeze the tightening affordable housing market.

HUD policy in the second presidency may experience potential influence by Project 2025. This is a published policy blueprint from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, working in concert with more than 100 organizations. It lays out a roadmap for a future conservative U.S. president to take the lead in restructuring many facets of federal agencies and policies and reforming the federal government while solidifying executive power. It includes a chapter on housing policy by former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, who led the agency from 2017 to 2021. This section may lay the groundwork for projects that Turner might build on, such as nurturing public-private partnerships and revisiting various regulations.

The Project 2025 housing proposals include:

• A ban on families with undocumented members from living in federally assisted housing. Undocumented immigrants are already barred from receiving subsidies.
• Repealing again the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule, which mandates that local governments address segregation and promote fair housing.
• Ending Housing First policies, which places people in subsidized housing without preconditions. The focus would instead be on programs that encourage self-sufficiency and having sobriety be the first requirement.
• Implementing time limits and work requirements for people who receive federal housing subsidies.

Senate Confirmation Process

The Senate confirmation hearings of Scott Turner are expected in January 2025. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, the current ranking member of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, and who is likely to become its next chair, said, in a statement, “Federal housing policy has failed hardworking Americans for decades, and they deserve a different approach. . . The Senate Banking Committee will work quickly to consider his nomination.”

Senate Democrats will give Turner’s arrangement with Project 2025 the most scrutiny. Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic Senator and committee member, said in a social media post, “A good HUD Secretary must be serious about building more housing, taking on predatory corporations, and lowering costs for families. . . If Turner implements Trump’s Project 2025 plans, it’ll be a disaster for first-time home buyers and working people struggling to afford rent.”

Through the confirmation hearing, Senators are expecting to learn more of Turner’s views of specific housing issues. Warren said she aims to keep an open mind as Turner moves through the confirmation process. “I look forward to learning more about Turner’s views on how to address the housing crisis and will review his record with an objective and open mind ahead of his confirmation hearing,” she added to her social media post.